Pengaruh Pemboleh Ubah Makroekonomi Terpilih Terhadap Turun Naik Harga Emas di Malaysia
The Impact of Selected Macroeconomics Variables on Gold Price Fluctuation in Malaysia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37134/mrj.vol7.18.2018Keywords:
ordinary least square, gold price, oil price, inflation, foreign exchange rateAbstract
The main aim of this study was to identify the influence of selected macroeconomic factors in influencing the fluctuation of gold prices in Malaysia. To achieve the goal of this study, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) approach was used. In addition, annual frequency data from 1989 to 2017 has been used for all model testing stages. The findings suggest that all selected macroeconomic independent variables in this study, that are crude oil prices, inflation rates and foreign exchange rates are important in affecting the downturn and rising prices of gold in the long run. The findings of the study further suggest that world oil prices and inflation rates affect the price level of gold positively. Meanwhile, foreign exchange rates have a negative impact on gold prices in Malaysia. The results of this study are important for the government, academics and gold investors to make their investment decision efficient in the long run.
Matlamat utama kajian ini dijalankan adalah untuk mengenalpasti pengaruh faktor-faktor makroekonomi terpilih dalam mempengaruhi harga emas di Malaysia. Bagi mencapai matlamat kajian ini, maka Kaedah Kuasa Dua Terkecil (KKDT) telah digunakan. Selain itu data berfrekuensi tahunan dari tahun 1989 hingga 2017 telah digunakan untuk semua peringkat pengujian model. Hasil dari dapatan kajian mencadangkan, kesemua pemboleh ubah bebas makroekonomi terpilih dalam kajian ini iaitu harga minyak mentah, kadar inflasi dan kadar pertukaran asing adalah penting dalam mempengaruhi turun dan naik tingkat harga emas dalam jangka masa panjang. Dapatan kajian seterusnya mencadangkan harga minyak dunia dan kadar inflasi mempengaruhi tingkat harga emas secara positif. Manakala, kadar pertukaran asing memberi impak yang negatif kepada tingkat harga emas di Malaysia. Hasil kajian ini adalah penting bagi pihak kerajaan, ahli akademik serta para pelabur emas dalam membuat keputusan pelaburan mereka berkesan dalam jangka panjang
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