Estimating Upsurge of Hiv Cases in Malaysia by Using Heun's Predictor-Corrector Method


  • Sabastine Emmanuel School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia
  • Saratha Sathasivam School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia
  • Nur Haziqah Izni Hasmadi School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia
  • Nur Hakimah Mohamad Nasir School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia
  • Muraly Velavan School of General and Foundation Studies, AIMST University, 08100 Bedong, Kedah, Malaysia



HIV, Transmission, Epidemic, Heun's method, Dynamics, Trends


The prevalence of HIV/AIDS remains a significant global health concern, including in Malaysia. In this study, a mathematical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of HIV transmission and progression within the Malaysian population. The model incorporates various factors such as population size, infection rate, progression to AIDS, recruitment, natural death, and death due to the disease. Heun's predictor-corrector method was applied to numerically solve the model equations and predict the population of susceptible individuals, infected individuals, and AIDS cases over time. Real-world data on HIV/AIDS cases in Malaysia were used to validate the model and provide accurate predictions. The results indicated a gradual decline in the number of susceptible individuals and an increase in the number of infected individuals and AIDS cases over the simulation period. These findings can contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of HIV/AIDS transmission in Malaysia and aid in the development of effective prevention and control strategies. Further research and refinement of the model are essential for continuous monitoring and projection of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia, facilitating timely interventions and resource allocation for healthcare planning and policy-making.


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Author Biography

Sabastine Emmanuel, School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM, Penang, Malaysia

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Federal University Lokoja, 260102 Lokoja, Kogi, Nigeria


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How to Cite

Emmanuel, S., Sathasivam, S., Hasmadi, N. H. I., Mohamad Nasir, N. H., & Velavan, M. (2024). Estimating Upsurge of Hiv Cases in Malaysia by Using Heun’s Predictor-Corrector Method. Journal of Science and Mathematics Letters, 12(1), 43–52.

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