Overconfidence, Experience and Passive Investing
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37134/jcit.vol10.sp.3.2020Keywords:
Losing money, Prospect theory, Miscalibration, Investment styleAbstract
The purpose of this paper is to consider the role of overconfidence and personal experience in adoption of passive investment style. Literature review on overconfidence, experience and passive investing are provided, followed by discussion on prospect theory and naïve reinforcement theory. Proposed conceptual framework is provided to guide future research. Anecdotes and proxy of personal experience showed that investor's personal experience might lead to different investment behavior. Overconfidence might interact with personal experience in investing context. Proposition on whether an increasing passive investing trend is a result of lower overconfidence is made. Investor’s behavior on passive investing trend requires attention. The interaction between overconfidence and personal experience in light of prospect theory and naïve reinforcement theory provides insight on adoption of active / passive investing style. This paper addresses whether overconfidence is diminished in light of global passive investing trend. This paper also stresses the importance of personal experience in investment decision.
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